Brexit: All The Smart EU’s Are Leaving London

Britain’s loss of European talent is happening so quickly that it has already shot down the idea that it would take a considerable time for Brexit to restructure the UK’s workforce. Amid the lowest levels of unemployment recorded in modern times, figures released by the Office for National Statistics have revealed that net immigration fell by 81,000 people in the 12 months since March last year.

That 25% drop was declared by the office  – with some understatement – to be “statistically significant” and shows that whatever form the Brexit transition period takes the workforce horse is already bolting and fast.

Most of the change is EU

“More than half of the change in net migration can be accounted for by a decrease in net migration of EU citizens,” the ONS observed, even though the UK has not yet left the Union. Some 33,000 EU citizens emigrated from the UK, a third more than in the previous year.

Of 182,000 people who left the UK for work reasons, 122,000 moved to a definite job, representing a 17% increase. That means more EU workers are finding jobs elsewhere or are seeing their existing jobs moved to elsewhere in the EU.

Most of those coming to the UK had confirmed jobs while the number coming to look for work dropped by 39,000, indicating that the UK’s reputation for offering work opportunities is waning and fewer people are taking the risk of moving here without a solid future.

EU8

Most of the change came from citizens of the “EU8” made up of five former communist countries – Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia – and three former Soviet republics, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.

Nicola White, the head of international migration statistics at the ONS said that “two-thirds of [the drop in immigration] was due to EU net migration and mainly EU8.

The net migration change was driven by an increase in emigration, mainly for EU citizens and in particular EU8 citizens, and a decrease in immigration across all groups.”

“These results are similar to 2016 estimates (published in May 2017) and indicate that the EU referendum result may be influencing people’s decision to migrate into and out of the UK, particularly EU and EU8 citizens. It is too early to tell if this is an indication of a long-term trend,” she said.

Seamus Nevin, the head of employment and skills policy at the Institute of Directors said the drastic change in immigration was worrying. “Given unemployment is currently at its lowest level ever, without the 3 million EU citizens living here the UK would have an acute labour shortage,” he said. “Signs that it is becoming a less attractive place to live and work are a concern.”

Pushed Away

While many employers and labour market analysts have reacted to the news with shock the result is hardly surprising given the fall in the Pound, the British Government’s failure to end uncertainty about the status of EU citizens after Brexit, and growing signs that banks and other major firms will be moving many jobs out of the UK.

The campaign group for EU citizens in Britain,  “the3million” says many EU nationals are already facing discrimination over jobs and housing, not so much through racism as simply the failure to clarify their future. The new figures cover the period up to March, three months before the Prime Minister’s “fair and serious offer” offer to allow EU citizens to stay in the UK with the loss of some rights providing the same conditions are granted to UK citizens in Europe.

The exodus of EU workers before Brexit has even taken place may lend some validity to one of the arguments made by a prominent Brexiter before last year’s referendum.

UKIP leadership hopeful John Rees-Evans complained that other EU states benefit unfairly from freedom of movement with Britain because more of their citizens are able to speak English than vice versa, making the Europeans more mobile and better able to integrate in the UK.

As the UK becomes less attractive those highly mobile EU workers are showing they really can simply “go home” when a weaker pound makes working in the UK less attractive.

by Stewart Vickers

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